Baseball was, is and always will be the best game in the world. – Babe Ruth

The day after a crushing Game Seven loss in the 2003 American League Championship Series for Red Sox fans, I arrived at work to find a youth-sized Yankees cap on my chair. One of my co-workers, an unabashed New York fan, had pinned a note to it: “Give this to your son so that he’ll know what it feels like to root for a REAL team!”

Needless to say, I was less than happy – no, actually, I was pissed – and I threw the hat and the note into one of the bottom drawers of my file cabinet, knowing well enough that my then six-month-old son would NEVER be a fan of any team other than the Boston Red Sox.

It wasn’t the first time someone had harassed me due to my undying loyalty to the local nine; in fact, I was so used to it that most often it didn’t bother me. Heck, I had married a girl from upstate New York whose family was primarily Yankees fans, and I took grief from them at every holiday gathering, save for my one nephew whom I had somehow convinced to root for the Sox (and still does).

But the sting of watching Boston blow a late-inning lead the night before, followed by a game-winning home run from Aaron Bleepin’ Boone in extras to send New York to yet another World Series – the Evil Empire’s sixth trip in eight seasons – was still fresh in my mind, and I wasn’t in the mood for what was really a harmless poke.

Why I didn’t just toss the hat in the trash, I don’t exactly remember. Maybe I didn’t want him to come by later, see it filed away with the garbage, and give me more grief. Maybe I thought hiding it deep in a drawer at work to collect dust for a finite period of time would keep it unworn by anyone, let alone my young son. Again, I don’t remember.

But one year later, all that changed. You know the story: down three games to none in the 2004 ALCS, I witnessed the point at which the fortunes of the franchise turned. With three outs to go in the game, from the center field bleachers at Fenway Park, I watched Dave Roberts steal second base; the rest is history, and ten days later, baseball crowned the Red Sox as World Series champions for the first time in 86 years.

Almost by instinct, I knew what next to do. With sleep still in my eyes, I returned to the work the following day and fished that cursed cap along with the appalling note out of my file cabinet (I hadn’t touched it in all that time). You couldn’t wipe the smile off my face as I found my co-worker standing with some of our other co-workers, shooting the breeze on the shop floor.

“Hey!” I called out as I approached him. The conversation stopped suddenly as every eye turned to look at me. I calmly handed him what he had gifted me a year earlier and said: “You can keep this [censored] hat, because my son DOES know what it feels like to root for a REAL team!” Dumbfounded for a moment, he then broke into a big smile and congratulated my team for finally ending 86 years of frustration. Of course, he had to add with a chuckle: “Think you’ll be around when they win their next championship in 2090?”

Fast-forward 14 years and here we stand, having seen our beloved Red Sox win a fourth championship in 15 seasons and the first in five years. Let that sink in: four championships in almost the blink of an eye. Even the most rabid of Red Sox fans would never have imagined this after that crushing defeat in 2003.

Each banner season has been special in its own unique way: this year, Boston was unstoppable, winning an improbable 108 games during the regular season, a new franchise record, and then taking down two 100-win teams en route to the sweet reward of a World Series win. Manager Alex Cora, who won it all with Boston in 2007, now has a collection of 119 photos framed on his office wall, one from each win in this, his rookie managerial season.

Longtime Boston Globe reporter and editor Martin Nolan, in an article written after the 2004 World Series ended, spoke about his father, rooting for his beloved Red Sox, either from the stands at Fenway Park or beside his radio at home in his kitchen, running through the emotions all too common of a frustrated Boston baseball fan. Late in life, his father said: “Marty, my boy, I don’t think the Sox are going to make it again in my lifetime. And I’m not too sure about yours.” A year after his father passed, the ball went between Bill Buckner’s legs, leading Nolan to observe, “The Red Sox killed my father, and they’re coming after me,” which David Halberstam quoted in his book, The Teammates.

While I did not suffer as long as Nolan – 1986 was the first time I vividly witnessed what others has painfully observed for years – it’s reason like this that I don’t take any of this recent success for granted; as the saying goes, winning never gets old. I don’t consider myself spoiled; I’m blessed. Blessed to witness a moment in time that this storied franchise leaves its mark on the sport. Blessed to share the excitement of a championship with my kids and my parents, the latter of whom suffered in the same vein as Nolan and earlier generations of Red Sox fan.

15 years ago, someone facetiously thought I would be doing my son a favor to let him become a Yankees fan. Whether due to shameless optimism, stubborn loyalty, or blind faith, I’m glad I choose to file away that cap.

In 2006, the league launched the use of PITCHf/x, a technology that tracked the velocity, position, and break of every pitch in real-time. Last year, PITCHf/x was phased out in favor of Statcast, which had initially been installed in all 30 major league stadiums in 2015. Though there have been questions about the pitch velocity being reported by the latter (data suggests that it’s about two MPH higher), the accuracy of the pitches, measured using Doppler radar and high-definition video, is nearly perfect.

With this technology in place over the past dozen years or so, baseball has been able to audit the effectiveness of its umpires, the arbitrators of the game. The results, which are nearly indisputable, are often used to help decide who amongst the 76 men in blue across 19 umpiring crews should be awarded with a post-season assignment.

But that’s about the extent to which, other than for statistical purposes, baseball uses this data. Even though we, the viewers at home, know immediately where the pitch is thrown, that data is not fed to the home plate umpire, who instead relies on his judgement as to whether or not the pitch traversed the strike zone.

While they don’t have to worry about pitches where the batter puts the ball in play, fouls off the pitch or swings and misses, statistics between 2008 and 2013 compiled using PITCHf/x show that umpires must make the ball on about 50% of all pitches thrown. From there, further data from that same time frame shows that the umpires correctly call pitches either inside the strike zone roughly 87% of the time and outside of the strike zone about 85% of the time, contrary to the more favorable 97% accuracy reported by MLB.

In the spirit of good sportsmanship, but also per Rule 9.02(a), players and managers are not allowed to challenge these calls, right or wrong; doing so may result in an ejection. Seasoned fans have been witness to such decisions, usually followed by umpires, managers, and players standing nose-to-nose with spit flying as the arguments continue while boos (or possibly cheers if it’s a member of the opposition) rain down from the stands.

But that’s the beauty of baseball, the traditionalists argue, a perfect game made more perfect with the inclusion of the “human element.” In their eyes, the man in blue behind the plate should be allowed to call the game as he sees it. So what if he misses a few here and there (going by the MLB estimate)? It’s what has been the standard for well over 100 years since Norm McLean became the first professional umpire in 1876; it’s “good enough.”

But is it really? Take what Bryant Gumbel reported on his HBO show in late 2016: in Game Seven of the 2011 World Series, 14 missed calls by home plate umpire Jerry Layne favored the home team St. Louis Cardinals, who won the game and the series, while only three missed calls favored the visiting Texas Rangers. While this will never be proven, did an apparent bias, perhaps swayed by the emotion of the crowd at Busch Stadium in a playoff atmosphere, make enough of a difference to influence who was crowned the world champions of baseball that fall?

Regardless of whether it’s Game Seven of the World Series, Opening Day at Fenway Park, or any one of 4,860 games played during the regular season, most would agree that variability exists between umpires in terms of what is called a strike, especially when it comes to the edges of the strike zone. While research does suggest that umpires are getting better at calling pitches correctly since the advent of PITCHf/x, especially with regards to pitches lower in the zone, there is still considerable difference between what the rule book states and umpire interpretation. Even more maddening is that the same research suggests that balls and strikes may be called differently depending on whether the batter is left-handed or right-handed.

In its infancy, using this technology to call balls and strikes may have seemed risky, perhaps even foolish, with data to suggest that umpires are doing a reasonable job. But in July 2015, with the San Rafael Pacifics hosting the Vallejo Admirals, former Athletics outfielder Eric Byrnes called balls and strikes from the stands using the PITCHf/x technology. The results were positive; calls were immediate, blind spots that trouble every umpire were eliminated, and few arguments arose from the players, the fans, or the home plate umpire who kept his arms by his side but still remained a necessary part of the game. In fact, the use of PITCHf/x as an arbitrator became almost a second thought the longer the game went, to the point where Byrnes went from emphatically calling each pitch to a more subdued tone.

Think back to before instant replay was finally allowed in baseball in 2014. Traditionalists argued that there was no need; most of the calls on the field were correct and its use would only hurt “the integrity of the game.” Now consider this: in 2017, 660 out of 1395 calls were overturned based on video replay. That’s 47.3%, or roughly half. In 2016, 50.4% of calls were overturned; in 2015 and 2014, 48.9% and 47.3% were overturned, respectively. So, in the four-plus years it’s been in use, nearly half of all calls are overturned, and that doesn’t include the calls that stand because video evidence is insufficient. Also don’t forget that managers get a maximum of two per game, and a second one is allowed only if they successfully challenge the first call.

Not ones to be swayed by evidence, traditionalists, including some NESN  studio analysts, still argue that replay hurts the “integrity of the game,” which roughly translates to keeping the flow of the game moving. How does getting more calls correct hurt the integrity of the game? With instant replay truly being “instant” (no need to rewind tape as was the case during the NFL’s initial use of replay in 1986), umpires can convene and come to a conclusion in less than two minutes, far less than an on-field argument between manager and umpire in the tradition of Earl Weaver and Bill Burr. Using Statcast to call balls and strikes, as proven by Byrnes’ experience, would not interfere with the pace of play and mitigate nearly all discussion centered around the location of each pitch.

There is no longer any reason that, in 2018 and beyond, this facet of the game should continue to be a source of controversy. All 30 major league ballparks have the necessary technology installed and in use, and it would take almost no time to get a system in place. Like a Chris Sale pitch to the center of the strike zone, the call should be clear.

In franchise history, only one player, Ted Williams, has hit at least 500 home runs in a Boston uniform. Jimmie Foxx and Manny Ramirez are the only other two players to hit number 500 with the club. “Big Papi” has 433 home runs with the Red Sox, second most in team history; he hit his other 58 with the Twins over his first six seasons in baseball. Whether he can hit another 67 home runs with the Red Sox, thereby finishing with 500  in a Boston uniform, is another story for another day.

Since hitting only six home runs over the first two months of the season and 15 over the first half of the season, Ortiz has been mashing baseballs at a torrid pace. In 102 plate appearances since the All-Star break, he has batted .333 with an OBP of .412 and an OPS of 1.134; more importantly relative to the conversation, he has hit 10 home runs, which averages to 10.2 PA/HR. In the month of August alone (44 PA), he has five home runs, including two on Wednesday in Miami, which averages to 8.8 PA/HR. On the season, he has hit 25 home runs in 442 plate appearances; that averages to 17.7 PA/HR.

Ortiz has played in 91.2% (104 out of 114) of all games this season for the Red Sox; only Xander Bogaerts has appeared in more games for Boston (110). 442 plate appearances over those 104 games averages to exactly 4.25 PA/game. With 48 games left this season and opportunities to rest here and there, he would likely play in at least 44 of those games, which would give him another 187 plate appearances.

At his current August pace, he would hit another 21 home runs, which would give him 512. At his second-half pace, he would hit another 18 home runs, which would give him 509. More realistically, at his seasonal pace, he would hit at least another 10 home runs this season, which would give him 501 for his career. If he cooled considerably and reverted to his first half average of 22.7 plate appearances per home run, he would only hit another eight home runs, finishing one shy of the 500 mark.

Bottom line: barring injury or a sudden drop in performance, his chances of reaching the 500 mark by the end of the season are very, very good. All that’s left to see now is whether he does it at Fenway Park before the Sox hit the road for the final seven games of the season.

Some dates to mark down on your calendar:

12 February: Truck Day
20 February: Pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers
25 February: All players report to Fort Myers
05 March: First official spring training game (versus Minnesota)
06 March: First spring training game at JetBlue Park (versus Miami)
06 April: Opening Day versus Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park
10 April: First game versus New York at Yankee Stadium
13 April: Opening Day at Fenway Park (versus Washington)
01 May: First game versus New York at Fenway Park

Have a safe and Happy New Year, everyone!

This jersey that we wear today: it doesn’t say Red Sox, it says Boston. … This is our f**king city, and no one is going to dictate our freedom. Stay strong!

We are #BostonStrong.

We’re all on the same team. #BostonStrong pic.twitter.com/gPqkMEjHl2

— Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) April 15, 2014

The only thing that might be memorable from that day were two things: one, the Red Sox won 3-1 over the Orioles, extending their home opener win streak to nine, and two, it proved to be the last game in the consecutive sellout streak. The next night, the streak ended at 820 games, which included postseason games at Fenway Park.

Today, that does not matter. After taking two-of-three in Baltimore, Boston returns to its home field for a celebration that should match or perhaps surpass the celebrations held at the home openers in 2005 and 2008. After the defending World Series champions were showcased at the White House earlier this week, now comes what should be the final mention of last year’s success: a pregame ceremony complete with all the trimmings (gold, to be specific) and the presentation of rings to players and team personnel.

Even Mother Nature is in a good mood; what had appeared to be a sour forecast has changed and the sun should be shining down on the team and its fans this afternoon.

A week from now, the focus should be completely on 2014 and what is happening on the field then but, for one final time, we will stand back salute what was an amazing accomplishment, a true worst-to-first finish that only one other team, the 1991 Minnesota Twins, has accomplished in the history of major league baseball. Enjoy and appreciate the moment; I know that I will.

It was a relatively quiet off-season for the local nine. The one notable subtraction was the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury to free agency, who agreed to sign with Boston’s division rival, the New York Yankees. Also gone from the team are two other key cogs from last season’s machine: catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (signed with the Miami Marlins) and shortstop Stephen Drew (currently unsigned). There were also a few notable additions, too, including catcher A.J. Pierzynski, outfielder Grady Sizemore, and reliever Edward Mujica, all of whom made the Opening Day roster.

Otherwise, the team taking the field this afternoon at Orioles Park at Camden Yards is for all intents and purposes the same one that we saw playing for postseason glory this past October. The starting rotation carries over from last season, as does the right side of the infield, the corner outfielders, and the key bullpen components.

Defending a championship is not easy and, in fact, nearly impossible: the last team to win back-to-back championships were the Yankees, who won three straight titles between 1998 and 2000. Only time will tell if the 2014 Red Sox can match the success of last season. With that, here are five thoughts on this year’s club as the season opens.

1. Will Middlebrooks will rebound from his sophomore slump.

After an eye-opening rookie campaign in 2012, cut short by a wrist injury, Middlebrooks got off to a poor start offensively last season and was optioned to Pawtucket in mid-June. He returned in early August and, over 41 games, had a BAbip of .320 and an OPS of .805 but factored little into Boston’s postseason run, batting .160 with one RBI over three playoff series. Bill James projects that he should bat .266 with 32 home runs, 104 RBI, and an .800 OPS, which if healthy should be attainable since they closely match what he was on pace to do in 2012. Signs were promising this spring, with four home runs and 1.056 OPS in 19 games this spring.

2. Koji Uehara will not repeat his performance from last season.

Uehara had an unbelievable season in 2013, posting a WHIP of 0.57 in 74.1 IP during the regular season. He was just a filthy during the postseason, combining for seven saves and a 0.51 WHIP in 13.2 IP and earned ALCS MVP honors. It would be hard for any closer, whether it’s Uehara, Mariano Rivera, Dick Radatz, or Dennis Eckersley, to match those totals in back-to-back seasons, but it’s going to be even more difficult given that he turns 39 years old this week. Farrell and pitching coach Juan Nieves will need to manage the bullpen more effectively this season and keep his innings down if he is to be effective as the team’s closer; Mujica, who had 37 saves for St. Louis last season, is the team’s backup plan.

3. Xander Bogaerts will make us forget the name “Stephen Drew.”

I mean no disrespect to Drew, who was a solid performer in the field and held his own at the bottom of the order, but Bogaerts, ranked second in the 2014 Baseball America Top 100 Prospects and eighth the previous year, is the real deal. His sample size at the major league level is small but he did prove himself in the 2013 postseason, taking over for Middlebrooks at third and posting an OPS of .893 while scoring nine runs in 34 plate appearances. In 2012, he was rated the best power hitter in the Boston farm system, so he and Middlebrooks should add some power to compliment Ortiz and Napoli in the middle of the lineup. It will be to no one’s surprise if he walks away with AL Rookie of the Year honors at the end of this season.

4. Jackie Bradley will be back in Boston sooner than later and to stay.

Grady Sizemore, who had been limited over the past four seasons due to injury and has not stepped on a baseball diamond since 2011, signed a contract with the Red Sox this January much like the one Mike Napoli signed last winter where his salary increases as performance goals are met. Then he played like a man possessed this spring, making some sensational outfield plays and  posting an OPS of .784 in 13 games played. Meanwhile, Bradley, the supposed heir apparent to Ellsbury, struggled at the plate and finds himself starting the season in Pawtucket. However, part of the reason for this was because Boston has a glut of outfielders and Bradley has options to burn. With the health of Shane Victorino in question to begin the season and questions still lingering about Sizemore’s durability, do not be surprised to see the young prospect back with Boston before long.

5. Jon Lester will have the best season of his career.

This may not be a stretch since Lester will become a free agent at season’s end. After contract negotiations this spring failed to bring about an extension, his agents and the Red Sox agreed to revisit talks at season’s end. It’s a risk both sides are willing to take at this point and I believe that it will be more to Lester’s benefit. True, his last two seasons have seen a dip in his ERA+ (87 and 109 in 2012 and 2013, respectively) but he was solid in the stretch last season and was almost lights out in the 2013 playoffs, pitching into the eighth inning in three of his five starts and winning four of those starts. In three starts this spring — granted a relatively small sample size — he posted a WHIP of 0.79 and allowed just one run in 12.2 IP. With something to prove, he is geared to post big numbers this season.

I’m never gonna leave you. I never gonna leave
Holdin’ on, ten years gone
Ten years gone, holdin’ on, ten years gone
— Led Zeppelin, Ten Years Gone

What a wonderful journey these last ten years have been.

On 17 March 2004, I finally stopped procrastinating, purchased the fenwayfanatics.com domain name, and debuted a new web site, which I tagged as the “home to Boston Red Sox baseball fans everywhere.” My intent was to share my interest in this team and its rich history from the perspective of an “everyday fan.”

At the time, we (and by “we,” I mean the collective we that consists of Red Sox fans near and far) were five months removed from Boston’s Game Seven defeat in the American League Championship Series to those damn Yankees, made even more heart-wrenching with the fact that we were five outs from a trip to the World Series. We were also only a month removed from watching the Yankees get the best of us yet again, trading for Alex Rodriguez after we had failed to get our trade for him approved by the player’s union due to concerns with the restructuring of his sizable contract.

Fast-forward ten years and the Red Sox have more than made up for what had been generations of frustrations for its loyal fan base: six post-season appearances, three pennants, and three (!) world championships. Even better, Boston enters this season as the defending World Series champion and, in 18 days, we’ll get yet another opportunity to watch an Opening Day at Fenway Park where the team will take a few extra moments in the pregame ceremony to recognize its players and staff and hand out some hardware in the form of championship rings.

So here we are, ten years gone. In those ten years, FenwayFanatics.com has gone from a simple static site with a small collection of pages to a WordPress-managed site with nearly 2000 pages and posts that span a wealth of information about the team and its history, which I have continued to expand. In addition, I have my Facebook page and a Twitter account where I can share my perspective and thoughts on this team and the game of baseball.

I’d like to believe, had the Red Sox not enjoyed the success of the last ten years, that I would still be here, still proudly carrying the torch for my team. My loyalty has been and always will be strong, regardless of what happens over the next ten seasons, and the seasons to follow.

If life permits, FenwayFanatics.com will still be going strong, too.

Like all sweet dreams, it will be brief, but brevity makes sweetness, doesn’t it?
— Stephen King, 11/22/63

Two weeks ago, I posted a study of the top “one-and-done” positional players in Red Sox history and the player who rose to the top of every statistical category we studied – WAR and OPS+ – was Adrian Beltre. It was almost no contest, as the former third baseman prove himself valuable at the plate and in the field.

Today, I came across an article posted today at Sports On Earth written by Howard Megdal entitled “We should appreciate how good Adrian Beltre really is.” In between references to the multitude of injuries he has played through over his career and the theory that race is a reason that his grittiness has been overlooked by the mainstream baseball media when compared to white ballplayers, I found a few notable excerpts:

Using Baseball-Reference.com’s Wins Above Replacement, Adrian Beltre rates seventh among all third basemen. Ever. Here’s the list of third basemen better than Beltre, per WAR: Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Chipper Jones and Brooks Robinson. All but Jones are in the Hall of Fame, and he will surely follow. All of them, including Jones, are household names among baseball fans…

For most of his career, his glove has been as impressive as anyone — third highest defensive WAR in baseball history by a third baseman, only trailing Buddy Bell and Brooks Robinson. A normal Beltre season will allow him to pass Bell this year, and leave only Robinson ahead of him.

At this stage, Beltre is not a lock for the Hall of Fame. Per Baseball-Reference.com, his Hall of Fame Monitor score is 89 and his Hall of Fame Standards score is 40; the average is 100 and 50, respectively. However, his JAWS score of 58.5 places him eighth among third baseman, and the average of 13 current Hall of Fame players at this position is 55.0. At age 35 and with least two more years guaranteed with the Rangers, so long as he continues to maintain his average OPS+ of 136 and raises his WAR another ten points, his chances should improve greatly.

Adrian Beltre’s time with the Red Sox proved brief, but that year was just a microcosm of what has been a truly remarkable baseball career, one that someday should culminate into election to the Hall of Fame.

To date, only one person has received this honor who has not met these criteria; Johnny Pesky, whose number 6 was retired in 2008, was recognized for more than 60 years of nearly uninterrupted time with the franchise as a player, a manager, coach, and instructor.

There is also one player who meets these criteria but whose number is absent from the façade in right field: former third baseman Wade Boggs.

Boggs so impressed the Red Sox organization during his rookie season in 1982 that they shipped third baseman Carney Lansford, who had won the American League batting title in 1981, to the Athletics after the season. He then proceeded to win batting titles in four of the next five seasons, amassing a team-record 240 hits in 1985. That year also marked the first of twelve consecutive All-Star selections for the Red Sox third baseman.

In franchise history, Boggs is third in career wins against replacement (WAR) behind only Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski and ninth in defensive WAR. His batting average is second behind Williams, his on-base percentage is third, and his OBP is ninth. More than two-thirds of his career 3,010 hits came with Boston. His average OPS+ with the Sox was 142, sixth in franchise history, and only once in 11 seasons with Boston (his last) was his OPS+ below 100.

Boggs went on to play another seven seasons, split between the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. After calling it a career after the 1999 season, he was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2005 on his first ballot with 91.9% of all eligible voters selecting him for induction.

So why has one of the most prolific players in franchise not received the honor that only seven other players in team history have received? The team did honor Boggs in 2004 with induction into the Red Sox Hall of Fame and, for a time, no player wore his number 26 between 2005 and 2011. He has also made appearances for the team as recently as when the Red Sox invited all living former members of the team to take the field in honor of Fenway Park’s 100th anniversary in 2012.

According to Boggs, the team has told him explicitly that because he did not finish his career in Boston, he is ineligible. It is true that, at one point, the Red Sox also required a player to finish his career with the Red Sox for his number to be considered for retirement, but that rule was relaxed once Carlton Fisk, who finished his career with the White Sox, was elected to the Hall in 2000.

Some would believe that the Red Sox and Boggs did not part on good terms and that the relationship was further soured when he choose to accept a contract offer from the Yankees, a division rival. Others, including former teammates, would argue that he was more concerned with his personal statistics and less so with the success of the team, though he vehemently denies these allegations. In addition, his extramarital affair with Margo Adams and the resulting palimony suit  brought a lot of negative attention to him and the Red Sox.

All that said, there is no denying that Boggs is one of the best players ever to wear a Red Sox uniform and, had he spent his last seven seasons in Boston and put up the same numbers, his number would have unquestionably been retired the same year that he was inducted into Cooperstown. It’s time to let bygones be bygones; Red Sox ownership, one that has done so much to mend fences with former players, should make it their mission this year, as the Red Sox bask in the afterglow of a world championship, to give Boggs the one final honor he deserves that is long overdue.